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Nats vs. Astros – 3/26/12

Mar 26, 2012, 4:32 PM EDT

Photo by Mark Zuckerman / NATS INSIDER
The Nats and Astros square off this afternoon at Space Coast Stadium.

VIERA, Fla. — Fresh off a 12-0 rout of the Mets, the Nationals are back at it today with many of the same regulars in the starting lineup. That includes the top four of Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth.

Werth, by the way, said he got confirmation from several people that his first-inning home run yesterday did indeed strike his truck. "There was a smoldering crater in the hood," he claimed. OK, so that part may have been an exaggeration. But the ball did at least make contact with the truck.

John Lannan, formally named this morning as Davey Johnson's No. 5 starter, is on the mound against the Astros. Ross Detwiler will follow him out of the bullpen.

Plenty of updates to come on a beautiful day in Viera, so please check back…

HOUSTON ASTROS vs. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Where: Space Coast Stadium, Viera
Gametime: 1:05 p.m.
TV: None
Radio: Astros feed via MLB Gameday Audio
Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees, Wind 11 mph out to CF

STARTING LINEUPS
NATIONALS
SS Ian Desmond
2B Danny Espinosa
3B Ryan Zimmerman
RF Jayson Werth

Read more »

130 Comments (Feed for Comments)
  1. Section 222 - Mar 26, 2012 at 4:36 PM

    I think I heard yesterday that Charlie and Dave won't be back on the radio until the Apr. 3 game against the Red Sox at Nats Park. What a shame. At least the other team's announcers will be there.

  2. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

    Hmmm Brian Bixler leading off. I've heard that name before somewhere.

  3. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:26 PM

    three straight singles and no runs. Bet they don't score.

  4. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:27 PM

    Error 303? I had the same issues yesterday. Primarily on page refresh. Just me? Not a big deal. Bases loaded go Jason….

  5. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:28 PM

    neg-anon said:three straight singles and no runs. Bet they don't score. wanna bet?

  6. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:29 PM

    You lose the bet….1:26

  7. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:29 PM

    Doh! too late, they already scored . . .

  8. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:29 PM

    What the heck happened to GameDay audio?

  9. Section 3, My Sofa - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:30 PM

    303 or 503? I've been getting the latter more & more lately.

  10. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:30 PM

    Now it's back. Must have gone to a local commercial, I guess.

  11. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:32 PM

    I've been getting the "site unavailable" message (can't recall the error number) more lately, too.

  12. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:32 PM

    I'll pay at the door.

  13. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:33 PM

    Yep no C&D until then. Seems like MASN and all the media outlets have been cutting back on ST this year. MASN let Debbie Taylor go … Have to wonder what the Lerner's are thinking? Ted may be getting too old for this albeit he is about the same age as Mr. Spock … ;) In my mind at least, the whole RGIII thing was an effort to try to get fan interest back when it was about to likely turn predominantly toward the Nationals and Caps. There is no way the Redskins win with no high draft picks for the next four years. Add in the salary cap penalty. They seem to be good at losing their 1st round picks as much as keeping them. One was suspended for smoking reefer last year. But RGIII appears to have worked to some extent until his first game when he gets crushed due to lack of an OL. Something Snyder has always left on the back burner like the blithering fool that he is.So, where is the Nats publicity? Attempt to ramp up interest in the team? Marketing, sales? I am not seeing it with diminished coverage. Of course a part of that is due to Angelos. Clearly, he liked Riggleman and put him in those silly "smart ball" commercials. No way he does that with Johnson. Make Johnson look better than Showalter? No way … Its disconcerting to see the Nats stuck between Angel'Os and his Oriholes and the Deadkin's maniacal owner. Nothing less than unhealthy for DC sports IMO.But, as Boz says, cities like Boston seem to do okay as mulit-sports towns. NY, Chicago, etc. DC should be more discriminating and less fickle. The Deadskins are still on a five year plan and given the owner everyone has to know he will find a way to screw it up people!! And JayB complains about Rizzo … that's real nightmarish roster handling JayB!

  14. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:34 PM

    503 for me.

  15. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:34 PM

    303 or 503? I've been getting the latter more & more lately.1-800-INDIA.

  16. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:41 PM

    1:33I think you've lost your way. Yes RG111 will help many moons from now. Yes Ovechkin is on fire (Montreal fan) and yes the Canadiens will miss the playoffs but this is a NATS blog.

  17. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:46 PM

    Now the Astros team is talking about the Werth truck dinger. The legend grows… :-)

  18. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:46 PM

    *broadcast* team, that would be

  19. Les in NC - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:47 PM

    Looks to me (as I am looking at the google satellite picture) that there isn't even any parking beyond the LF wall. To me it looks like all the parking is either behind homeplate, or beyond the right field/right center field wall which leads me to believe that this is an entirely fabricated story.Just sayin'.

  20. Les in NC - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:48 PM

    The meteor struck truck story that is…

  21. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:49 PM

    If it is an urban legend, I will like it even more, but Bos spoke of eyewitness accounts in his chat. ;-)

  22. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:49 PM

    I think you've lost your way. Yes RG111 will help many moons from now. Yes Ovechkin is on fire (Montreal fan) and yes the Canadiens will miss the playoffs but this is a NATS blog.The point is DWS they ARE LOSING THE PUBLIC RELATIONS MARKETING war when they should be winning going away? What part of that didn't you get fella? Need some reading comprehension work me thinks.

  23. Cease the Opportunity - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:50 PM

    natsfan1a said… Now the Astros team is talking about the Werth truck dinger. The legend grows… :-)I heard that it was a meteor that hit Werth's truck…

  24. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:51 PM

    If Werth hits 50 doubles most with men on and 10 homers I'd be happy … I don't care about massive shots … production == runs. NOT solo blasts.

  25. Cease the Opportunity - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:51 PM

    Les in NC said… The meteor struck truck story that is…Didn't see this. My bad…

  26. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:52 PM

    Doesn't Chris Johnson wear us out?I don't get the Werth story. Physically impossible. I was at the game and where he hit it there is not even grass to park a car. I guess I really don't get why people who should know better are biting on it.

  27. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:52 PM

    I was talking about the baseball-hit truck story. You guys are on your own as far as any meteor sightings. :-)

  28. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:56 PM

    Anon 1:51.Again, I was at the game. You would care if you had seen it. An absolute BLAST! Would have cleared the seats at Nats Park. I didn't know he could hit a ball that far. Not sure I thought ANYONE could hit a ball that far. Left fielder never moved, just turned his head slightly.Also, there was a fan yelling 'overrated' to him during the at-bat. He stopped and stared down the fan before entering his home run trot.

  29. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:57 PM

    Because it's funny, whether or not it's true (just my personal opinion). Just noticed that Kilgore has more of Bos' investigative work on the story. Wonder whether he used the tape measure he employed in the RFK outfield back in the day? I smell a Pulitzer. ;-)Anonymous said… I don't get the Werth story. Physically impossible. I was at the game and where he hit it there is not even grass to park a car. I guess I really don't get why people who should know better are biting on it. March 26, 2012 1:52 PM

  30. Mark Zuckerman - Mar 26, 2012 at 5:58 PM

    Anon 1:52 — You're correct that there isn't a parking lot behind the left-field fence, but they do put a couple of players' cars over there. I can see at least two of them today.Did Werth's HR actually hit his own car? We'll never know. But he absolutely hit it in the very near vicinity of several cars.

  31. C.Cohen - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:05 PM

    Hey Mark,I love the work you do and can't get enough NI! But don't give the Mets runs they didn't earn. Yesterday's game was a shutout 12-0!p.s. I am expecting this to be the first in a fairly long line of shutouts by the staff.

  32. Cease the Opportunity - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:06 PM

    natsfan1a said… Our attempt to add to the legend as though Werth's hit was a meteor…

  33. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:07 PM

    Thanks, Cease. I thought I might have missed a late-breaking bulletin. :-)

  34. JamesFan - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:07 PM

    Lannan going into the 5th. This is the real test.

  35. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:08 PM

    Is there an estimate on how many feet Werth's homer traveled?

  36. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:09 PM

    They should modify that DJ car-alarm soundtrack to include Werth yelling: "Geez, not my truck again!"

  37. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:10 PM

    Did Werth's HR actually hit his own car? We'll never know. But he absolutely hit it in the very near vicinity of several cars.Boz was apparently on the case with his sherlock holmes pipe and loyal associate Dr. Kilgore. It hit a Palm frond and bounced off of his truck's bumper.Boz figures it out.

  38. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:11 PM

    Haha that would be funny NatsFan :-)I like that idea.

  39. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:11 PM

    Cwj, not to send a loyal NI reader elsewhere but you might want to take a quick peek at the Nationals Journal site to see the Bos calculations. (and 503 it is on the error)

  40. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:12 PM

    Thanks, Cwj. I see that Anon beat me to the punch on the Bos calculations (tips virtual cap).

  41. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:12 PM

    Just read it (thanks for the link Anon).490ish feet.

  42. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:16 PM

    I'll bookmark Nationals Journal. Not sure why I haven't before.But yeah, NI is my true home :-)

  43. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:18 PM

    Mine, too, Cwj. Mark also has a link to the Journal on the left side of the page (under Other Nats Blogs).

  44. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:21 PM

    I don't work in PR, never claimed to. Perhaps your ideas would be better served directed to the proper people…..The point is DWS they ARE LOSING THE PUBLIC RELATIONS MARKETING war when they should be winning going away? What part of that didn't you get fella? Need some reading comprehension work me thinks.

  45. NatinBeantown - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:21 PM

    Les in NC- I can't verify one way or the other, but the explanation I read elsewhere is that many players parallel park on the access road (way) beyond the left field wall.I'm personally of the theory that the ball was struck with such force that it went over the left field wall, circumnavigated the globe, and landed in the RF parking lot, in the process both damaging Werth's truck and reversing the earth's spin to save Lois Lane.

  46. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:22 PM

    Boz wrote:At this point, Boz employed the “3-4-5 triangle rule we all learned in school,” he said. If the ball had hit 12 feet up the tree, he figured, the ball would have carried another nine feet had the tree not been there. Just to be sure, he put the extra distance at 9 to 12 feet. Uggh . . . that shows he has no idea what he's doing. He's using the Pythagorean theorem which has absolutely nothing to do with the paths of projectiles (bodies moving through space), which take on the shape of a parabola. My daughter, who is in 11th grade physics, could tell him that.

  47. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:24 PM

    Okay, Boz said it bounced off a palm tree and hit his car. That adds some plausibility.

  48. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:26 PM

    Awesome theory, Beantown.NatinBeantown said… Les in NC- I can't verify one way or the other, but the explanation I read elsewhere is that many players parallel park on the access road (way) beyond the left field wall. I'm personally of the theory that the ball was struck with such force that it went over the left field wall, circumnavigated the globe, and landed in the RF parking lot, in the process both damaging Werth's truck and reversing the earth's spin to save Lois Lane. March 26, 2012 2:21 PM

  49. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:29 PM

    Anyone know the longest home run ever hit by a Nat? I recall a 450 bomb in Cincy by Soriano that cleared the riverboat in center field. Jayson probably matched that even with a parabolic flight of the ball.

  50. Mark'd - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:29 PM

    Werth swinging 2 ABs with 3-0 and didnt come close to hit cars.

  51. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:34 PM

    that shows he has no idea what he's doing. He's using the Pythagorean theorem which has absolutely nothing to do with the paths of projectiles (bodies moving through space), which take on the shape of a parabola.Oh sigh all of these NON-MATH types? No wonder our government is in the shambles it is.Dude, you can use good old pythagorus to do that calculation because it was AT THE END of the parabola? Its simple (even for a wonk) probability and stats. You can say that Boz's calculations are within a .95 probability given the small size left compared to the original track. Roughly, a straight line will do. Sheesh another Greek named Euclid understood this! I suppose you believe all those pretty circles you seen depicting orbits are accurate … ~laughing derisively~ NOT EVEn CLOSE there is so much pitch, yaw and movement they are only gross APPROXIMATIONS but they come close enough.In the study of Dyamics the first thing you LEARN silly Wonk is about limits. You never get a precise answer but the more sample measurements you make the closer you get to that hypothetical "limit". The Greeks found that even if you could achieve that grosser approximations come close enough to provide reasonable information.Gosh HOC EST RIDICULUM! Next you'll be telling us the Earth is perfectly round? ~really laughing now~

  52. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:37 PM

    Atta way, Bernie (with a two-run dinger)!

  53. Will - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:41 PM

    Are MLB's Game Day stats correct? Has Lannan really only made 33 pitches and only 4 balls through 5 IP?

  54. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:42 PM

    Anon 2:29-Last year Morse hit one 466ft which was 8th longest in the NL.Not sure, but Dunn may have hit one further when he was here.

  55. jd - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:43 PM

    Will,No it's not correct.

  56. Feel Wood - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:43 PM

    A DC Wonk said… Boz wrote:At this point, Boz employed the “3-4-5 triangle rule we all learned in school,” he said. If the ball had hit 12 feet up the tree, he figured, the ball would have carried another nine feet had the tree not been there. Just to be sure, he put the extra distance at 9 to 12 feet. Uggh . . . that shows he has no idea what he's doing. He's using the Pythagorean theorem which has absolutely nothing to do with the paths of projectiles (bodies moving through space), which take on the shape of a parabola. My daughter, who is in 11th grade physics, could tell him that.Actually it does kind of make sense. Ball is on an angled downward trajectory about ready to hit ground. Instead, it hits 12 feet up on a tree, stopping its progression along the path away from the plate, which is the distance Boswell is trying to calculate. Let's call the distance measured along the ground from the plate to the base of the tree D. How much further along the ground would the ball have traveled had it not hit the tree? Assume at this point that the ball's trajectory is basically straight, and the point where the ball hit the tree, the point where it would have hit the ground, and the point at the base of the tree form a right triangle. (Assuming also that the tree is exactly 90 degrees vertical to the ground.) Using the 3-4-5 right triangle rule, 12 feet high on the tree equals 9 feet away on the ground from the base of the tree. Thus the total distance the ball traveled is D+9.

  57. SCNatsFan - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:44 PM

    Will… no. Walks usually counts as 4 balls, his as one strike, outs as strikes.

  58. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:45 PM

    There's something off about the way GameDay indicates balls and strikes but I can't recall how that works.Will said… Are MLB's Game Day stats correct? Has Lannan really only made 33 pitches and only 4 balls through 5 IP? March 26, 2012 2:41 PM

  59. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:45 PM

    Anony blathered:In the study of Dyamics the first thing you LEARN silly Wonk is about limits.I have a degree in math. I understand limits.Dude, you can use good old pythagorus to do that calculation because it was AT THE END of the parabola? Its simple (even for a wonk) probability and stats.I was simplifying. Let me get more specific:You can't use Pythagorean here because you only know one side of the triangle! Why does he assume it's the shape of a 3-4-5 triangle? It hit 12 feet up. So what! What if it was a 5-12-13 triangle? Then Boz would be arguing it went 5 more feet? Utterly ridiculous.To put it in other words, which are mathematically equivalent: just because it was at the end of the parabola, you still don't know any of the angles! To take extreme examples: if it went high into the air, then it would not have traveled much past the tree., if it was a line drive it would have traveled further.The bottom line is this: knowing the ball hit 12 feet above the ground is not enough information — you need either: (a) the angle at which it hit; or (b) the time the ball took to get there; or (c) the highest point in the arc. Unless you get one of these, you're just making a WAG.

  60. nattydread - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:46 PM

    Nice to see the bats beginning to liven up. Here's another angle on sprint training stats: Isn't it a bit of an insult to fans who pay to watch ST games to say "they mean nothing?". Who cares if you paid $2.50 to come to the game? "We decided not to try today because it doesn't matter".

  61. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:46 PM

    Yep just looked it up in my Bill James handbook, Dunn hit a 479 foot homer on 9/14/10.He also hit a 471 footer that year.

  62. Section 222 - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:47 PM

    I'm personally of the theory that the ball was struck with such force that it went over the left field wall, circumnavigated the globe, and landed in the RF parking lot, in the process both damaging Werth's truck and reversing the earth's spin to save Lois Lane.Nah, only Willie Harris could do that.

  63. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:47 PM

    Super Willie!

  64. VladiHondo - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:49 PM

    "1:05 p.m. — Really hoping Bixler hits a groundball so we can see him hustle down the baseline. Never seen anybody hustle like him."Even Jamie Carroll? Notorious hustle guy.

  65. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:50 PM

    John Lannan,(sorry, LannEn), and Roger Bernadina are both playing like they have something to prove……

  66. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:51 PM

    Feel Wood wrote:Using the 3-4-5 right triangle rule, 12 feet high on the tree equals 9 feet away on the ground from the base of the tree. Thus the total distance the ball traveled is D+9. (Note to others: we're saying a 3-4-5 triangle, but we're using a multiple of that: 9-12-15).I hope my prior post answered that. The question is: why a 3-4-5 right triangle? There are an infinite number of right triangles that have a length of 12 on one side (e.g., 5-12-13). In fact, it was much more likely to be closer to 5-12-13 than 3-4-5.

  67. Will - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:51 PM

    My god! Andres Blanco got a base hit!!

  68. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:53 PM

    No worries. Y'all lost me at Pythagorean. ;-)(Note to others: we're saying a 3-4-5 triangle, but we're using a multiple of that: 9-12-15).

  69. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:57 PM

    Who are King and Keyes and why are they still in camp? When will the rest of the minor leaguers/people who are released going to be gone?

  70. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 6:59 PM

    I was talking to a homeless person who sleeps under one of the trees beyond the leftfield fence and he said a person from the Nats asked him where the ball hit. The homeless guy showed him and the guy measured it out to be 602 feet in the air! The guy also said the ball didn't hit any truck. He said it "plugged" much like a golfers drive will on a wet day

  71. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:03 PM

    They don't have homeless people in Viera. In Viera, everything is better.

  72. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:05 PM

    Well maybe he was jump camping out then

  73. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:06 PM

    The woman on the grassy knoll reported seeing a man with an umbrella, but it had not rained all day. I think there was a second hitter.

  74. NatinBeantown - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM

    If the stats don't count, than the comment strings don't either. This one went off the rails a few hours ago.Not disppointed that Sharkadina will likely get a lot of early season innings in LF while Morse recovers. It's his best position and he can hold up his side of the platoon.

  75. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:11 PM

    Definitely the comment strings don't count in ST. Speaking only for myself, I reported to the blog in the best shape of my life but, sadly, I am not yet in midseason form.

  76. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:12 PM

    Gameday hasn't moved in a while….

  77. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:14 PM

    Kudos to Lannan, anybody? 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K's (5 K's?!?). Not great — but not bad — certainly pretty good for a #5 ;-)

  78. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:14 PM

    I hope my prior post answered that. The question is: why a 3-4-5 right triangle? There are an infinite number of right triangles that have a length of 12 on one side (e.g., 5-12-13). In fact, it was much more likely to be closer to 5-12-13 than 3-4-5.AND an infinite number of arcs of infinitesimal angles make a perfect circle. You are over thinking the problem dear Wonk. Again, why out government is whacko!!

  79. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:14 PM

    How did the 7th run score?

  80. gonatsgo - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:16 PM

    I think Lannan pitches better with a chip on his shoulder. Internally, of course – outwardly he has been super professional. He has acted " like he has been there before". Good guy. For a minute there I though Detweiler was going to have his scheduled meltdown like the other pitchers have had in the last week.Got out of it without too much damage.

  81. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:17 PM

    Anony said: You are over thinking the problem dear Wonk. Again, why out government is whacko!!I'm not overthinking it. You're underthinking it.To solve a triangle you need *two* pieces of information: either the length of two of the sides, or one length and one angle. If you only know one length, you don't know anything else about the triangle at all.It's like saying "I drove my car for one hour, how far did I go?" Unless you know more information, you can't answer it.

  82. Feel Wood - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:18 PM

    A DC Wonk said… Feel Wood wrote:Using the 3-4-5 right triangle rule, 12 feet high on the tree equals 9 feet away on the ground from the base of the tree. Thus the total distance the ball traveled is D+9. (Note to others: we're saying a 3-4-5 triangle, but we're using a multiple of that: 9-12-15).I hope my prior post answered that. The question is: why a 3-4-5 right triangle?The answer is: why not? He's doing an estimate, for Fick's sake. And he's trying to estimate a distance that is what, about 2 or 3% of the overall distance? If he's off by 2 or 3 feet with this last bit, what's the effect on the total distance? Virtually nil. So don't flame Bos for using bad math on something like this, since his math was good. He stated his assumption right up front, a 3-4-5 ratio right triangle. If you want to flame him for anything, flame him for being so anal as to even do this calculation in the first place when he could just as easily said he was making a SWAG.

  83. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:20 PM

    How did the 7th run score? Lombo singleBlanco single, Lombo to 3rdStephen King sac fly, scoring Lombo.

  84. Mark'd - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:22 PM

    Wonk, Lannan did a very good job. 1 wind aided HR and a K wild pitch followed by a frustration 4 pitch walk then eventually a Sac Fly scored the 2nd run. He dominated all game.

  85. SCNatsFan - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

    Detwiler just seems to always want to give up the long ball once every effort. OK maybe not want to but seems to.

  86. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:25 PM

    Sure, I'll toss some kudos Johnny's way, too. Atta way, kid.

  87. Flamer - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:25 PM

    Feelwood, you used FLAME a bunch. Do Boz and flame go together?

  88. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:27 PM

    What the heck? Blogger Monster at my post. H-Rod in for the 9th.

  89. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:27 PM

    Using the 3-4-5 ratio, can we calculate the precise length of a geometry discussion on a baseball blog before everyone stops giving a *&%$# and moves on to something else?

  90. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:27 PM

    ate, rather

  91. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:28 PM

    Don't know about you, but I was there some time ago… ;-)before everyone stops giving a *&%$# and moves on to something else?

  92. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:31 PM

    I asked:The question is: why a 3-4-5 right triangle?FeelWood wrote: The answer is: why not?I tell you why not in simple terms: because a 3-4-5 right triangle has absolutely nothing — nothing — to do with the problem! That like saying: "gee, my car is 4 feet high — I'll bet the shadow is 3 feet long because it makes a 3-4-5 triangle" Or: "I threw a ball, and it hit 12 feet up on the wall, so it would have gone 9 more feet." It's a total non-sequitor.Again, the problem is that a triangle has nothing to do with what he's trying to figure out.Is his estimate close? Sure, in the grand scheme of things, but that's just because he's using a small number compared to 490 feet. If he had rolled a pair of dice, he would have gotten any number between 2 and 12, he'd be close, too — but it has nothing to do with how to figure out the distance a ball flies.I don't care if he's close or not — anybody can make estimates. And I wasn't even criticizing him — I was just pointing out that he has no idea what he's doing.

  93. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:31 PM

    For Henry: 1B, K, and a game-ending DP. Nats win 7-4.

  94. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:32 PM

    MPHRod — small sample size — but, still, ERA of 0.00

  95. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:33 PM

    Atta way, Henry. :-)

  96. Feel Wood - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:37 PM

    Again, the problem is that a triangle has nothing to do with what he's trying to figure out.And I wasn't even criticizing him — I was just pointing out that he has no idea what he's doing.You don't agree that the point where a ball hits a tree, the point where the ball would have hit the ground had it not hit the tree, and the point at the base of the tree form a triangle? Sounds like you're the one who doesn't know what he's doing.

  97. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:40 PM

    don't care if he's close or not — anybody can make estimates. And I wasn't even criticizing him — I was just pointing out that he has no idea what he's doing.Sheesh I would say just the opposite? You apparently don't know what you are talking about? If you are a wonk and like things like polls then you would know what the central limit theorem is? Right? No, probably NOT. Look it up and stop this nonsense. Sheesh … although I find humor in it I also find it alarming! Our education system is producing dolts … my God!

  98. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM

    Couldn't we talk about something less controversial than Boz's home run calculations? Like maybe the healthcare law?

  99. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:44 PM

    The bottom line is this: knowing the ball hit 12 feet above the ground is not enough information — you need either: (a) the angle at which it hit; or (b) the time the ball took to get there; or (c) the highest point in the arc. Unless you get one of these, you're just making a WAG.Or you can use probability to come up with a good estimate. Right? Which is what Boz did. A degree in Math? From where? The K-Mart? Not the University of Maryland where I got my degree that's for damned sure.

  100. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:48 PM

    Couldn't we talk about something less controversial than Boz's home run calculations? Like maybe the healthcare law?Its not as much fun! 11th graders, parabolas, BAH just ask Venn if Boz was right … because true masters care nothing for these … bwahahahahaah.

  101. Alt.Flame - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:52 PM

    Feelwood, you used FLAME a bunch. Do Boz and flame go together?I am the ultimate FLAMER, I make the dread Dormamu look like a spent match stick.

  102. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:53 PM

    Good work on breaking the locker room story, Grandstander. Seems like the pep talk must have worked. :-)

  103. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:56 PM

    Could you guys stop talking about baseball so much? It's messing up this fascinating blog about math.

  104. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 7:57 PM

    FeelWood wrote:You don't agree that the point where a ball hits a tree, the point where the ball would have hit the ground had it not hit the tree, and the point at the base of the tree form a triangle? Sounds like you're the one who doesn't know what he's doing.FeelWood, unlike some of the others here, I try not to pontificate on stuff unless I know what I'm talking about. I know a lot more about projectile motion and the math involved than you think.If you want to approximate it as a triangle, go ahead. It's not going to work with many angles, but, I'll play along. But you still have no idea of the length of the other sides! None at all.Since you insist on dragging this out, let me go over specific examples with you.Disregarding air resistance, etc., the ball will land at approximately the same angle as it was hit, right?And let's approximate by using Pythag.So, suppose Werth hit the ball at an angle of 15 degrees. Then it would land at approximately that angle. Do the trig, and you'd find that in a right triangle, if the opposite side of the 15-degree angle was 12 feet (the height of where it hit the tree), then the other leg of the triangle (the length the ball would have traveled) is over 44 feet (!!). Is that anywhere near the 9-to-12 feet that Boz estimated? Similarly, if Werth hit it at 40 degrees, it would have traveled an extra 14 feet.Do you see that the angle that Werth hit it determines everything, and a 3-4-5 triangle has nothing to do with it? A 3-4-5 triangle is only relevant if Werth happened to hit the ball at 53.13 degrees.(Handy right-triangle calculator at http://www.csgnetwork.com/righttricalc.html)

  105. Cease the Opportunity - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:00 PM

    A DC Wonk said… I feel educated now. thanks Wonk…

  106. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:01 PM

    A degree in Math? From where? The K-Mart?You know, I'm actually trying to explain things, rather than insult others.

  107. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:01 PM

    Well the wino measured it at 602 feet. I don't give a rats behind about any triangle nonsense. I'll take his word for it. Move on

  108. Butt-Head - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:02 PM

    Hey Beavis, if I wanted to do math, I'd go to school.

  109. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:04 PM

    Thanks, Cease.To all, ignore all the math and look at the nice color picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ideal_projectile_motion_for_different_angles.svg. You can see that the length of the homerun has 100% to do with how hard it's hit, and what angle it's hit. It's a nice pic. While you're looking at it, visualize Nats players hitting home runs ;-)

  110. erocks33 - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:04 PM

    Holy cow, it feels like everyone is hanging out in the basement of the Science Building today!! Who cares how Boz came about his hypothesis? Here's the only answer we need on the Werth home run:He hit it hard. He hit it far.You're welcome.

  111. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:06 PM

    Anything involving Pythagoras and geometry gives me a headache.Good to see Lannan pitch well.Rodriguez has been very sharp this spring. I definitely would be on board with him filling in for Storen.I have a feeling Davey will alternate Henry and Lidge, which would be fine as well.

  112. Cwj - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:07 PM

    Or I should say, good to "read" that Lannan pitched well :)

  113. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

    Can't look at pretty picture. Ignoring math. Physics? Fuhgeddaboudit. Visualizing blog peace now…A DC Wonk said… Thanks, Cease. To all, ignore all the math and look at the nice color picture at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ideal_projectile_motion_for_different_angles.svg. You can see that the length of the homerun has 100% to do with how hard it's hit, and what angle it's hit. It's a nice pic. While you're looking at it, visualize Nats players hitting home runs ;-) March 26, 2012 4:04 PM

  114. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

    Similarly, if Werth hit it at 40 degrees, it would have traveled an extra 14 feet.Which, if you had read Kllgore's post carefully Boz took into account. What Boz managed to do was get a rough estimate of the area underneath YOUR curve Wonk. So, we now have a an x' distribution. We can safely assume that your "parabola" can be considered a standard normal distribution since it often occurs in nature. In other words: CENTRAL LIMIT theorem? Right? My God dosey dolts and little lambsey ivies a diddly didy do wouldn't you?In any case Boz's calculations appear to give a decent level of confidence at least greater than .9. Now we examine his confidence interval and its between 489 and 492 feet. We can safely assume but the central limit theorem that the mean is somewhere between 489 and 492 feet. Because of the central limit theorem his measurements and estimates based on eye-witness testimonies are likely valid. NOT perfect.

  115. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:13 PM

    the mean is somewhere between 489 and 492 feet.Sorry, not the mean … the x-bar or z-score depending … since this is an estimated standard normal distribution curve.

  116. Feel Wood - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:19 PM

    A DC Wonk said… FeelWood wrote:You don't agree that the point where a ball hits a tree, the point where the ball would have hit the ground had it not hit the tree, and the point at the base of the tree form a triangle? Sounds like you're the one who doesn't know what he's doing.FeelWood, unlike some of the others here, I try not to pontificate on stuff unless I know what I'm talking about. I know a lot more about projectile motion and the math involved than you think.If you want to approximate it as a triangle, go ahead. It's not going to work with many angles, but, I'll play along. But you still have no idea of the length of the other sides! None at all.Again, I'm not triangulating anything. I'm merely pointing out what Boswell did and saying that there was nothing wrong with the assumption he made about the path of the ball on the last ten feet or so of a 500 foot trajectory and the way he calculated it out. You're the one saying it was wrong. But you miss the point, again. Kilgore says Bos eyeballed the distance the ball traveled to the outfield fence, yet he goes to higher math to estimate the last 10-15 of the distance. Boswell is clearly insane. But for that matter, so are you.

  117. Anonymous - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

    And why can I look at it statistically rather than dynamically? Because the ball landed. its no longer in motion. I would use dynamics to predict where a moving projectile will move to next but you would need velocity, trajectory, acceleration. You would have to know how fast the ball was moving when the bat hit it … the angle of trajectory etc. DC WONK can never know those things so how in Texas should Boz? How would anyone? SO, we use the fact that standard normal distributions occur frequently in nature and look an awful lot like Dr. DC Wonk daughter's parabola. It is now "fixed" and "static" in time because it is no longer moving. We can then use the approximate landing spot to estimate the possible total distance interval (and that's what everyone is interested in … not how fast the ball was traveling, nor its angle.)Solve the problem not your daughter's homework Wonk.

  118. Section 3, My Sofa - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

    We need some real baseball. Not even winning is getting through to these guys anymore.

  119. Section 3, My Sofa - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:37 PM

    Some threads just go off the track early. Happens to the best of them. Go get 'em in the next post.

  120. A DC Wonk - Mar 26, 2012 at 8:50 PM

    FeelWood wrote:Boswell is clearly insane. But for that matter, so are you.I apparently overlooked where you had turned into one of those posters that throws insults at others. I'm sorry to see that.One of the Anonys, after talking about central limit theorems and normal distributions (which also have absolutely nothing to do with this) wrote: DC WONK can never know those things so how in Texas should Boz? How would anyone?Actually, one can make a determination by timing how long it took from the crack of the bat until it hit the object. All one needs is time and distance, and one can compute the angle.we use the fact that standard normal distributions occur frequently in nature Projectiles _never_ follow a curve that resembles a normal distribution. Did you ever see a batted ball start off as flat off the bat for a while, and then rise up quickly, then come down quickly, and then flatten out before it hits the ground?

  121. sjm308 - Mar 26, 2012 at 9:26 PM

    Wonk: feel might call you crazy but by my calculations if you were only betting the anons a dollar on each of their statements you have still made well over $1000 so far and the season hasn't even started.As one who failed statistics in graduate school (my advisor was the damn teacher as well) I scrolled through most of that dialogue faster then most of Peric's stuff.While on the treadmill today I watched the Red Sox vs. Phillies. Lester totally shut them down going 7 innings and I think the final was 6-0.Phillies really do have some issues with their GM saying there was not even a timeline for either Utley or Howard. Howard's injury is particularly troubling in that he is fighting an infection and until that gets cleared up he can't begin to rehab his achilles injury. I am not sure of this but I think I saw Lance Nix playing 3rd base but it could have been left field and he was just coming in on a popup. Off to read the next post.Go Nats!!

  122. Manassas Nats Fan - Mar 26, 2012 at 10:29 PM

    Maybe I missed it in a note hear, but from reading Mark's write up, why is it 2 ER, The second run was the guy who got on base on pass ball on a strike out. He should have never been on base,, That run should be unearned for sure, unless I missed something in the translation.

  123. DWS - Mar 26, 2012 at 10:32 PM

    Yeah? Bugs proved the world was round by throwing a baseball around it and getting it stamped through customs on the way. That's enough physics for me.

  124. natsfan1a - Mar 26, 2012 at 10:54 PM

    Leave us not forget that Bugs was no slouch on the field, either.

  125. Section 3, My Sofa - Mar 26, 2012 at 11:41 PM

    OK, is everybody gone? Is it safe?A kudos. Kudos is singular. It's a laurel wreath. A kudos.

  126. Dave - Mar 27, 2012 at 3:16 AM

    Manassas Nats FanIt was ruled a wild pitch instead of a passed ball, so it counts as an earned run against the pitcher. (It really seems like anything that gets the batter to swing shouldn't be allowed to be called a wild pitch, but that would be too logical)

  127. natsfan1a - Mar 27, 2012 at 10:32 AM

    LOL, so that was you the whole time back in the day on NJ?Section 3, My Sofa said… OK, is everybody gone? Is it safe? A kudos. Kudos is singular. It's a laurel wreath. A kudos. March 26, 2012 7:41 PM

  128. natsfan1a - Mar 27, 2012 at 10:40 AM

    pssst…is everybody still gone? What if he was awarded more than one wreath? Anyhoo, off to have some coffee, rest on my laurels, that type of thing. :-)

  129. Manassas Nats Fan - Mar 27, 2012 at 3:07 PM

    Thanks Dave. Almost never when the guy swings even if it a terrible pitch is ruled q wild pitch. IF it was close enough to swing, it is close enough to stop. Being a wild pitch would make it earned.

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