Jan 4, 2013, 12:00 PM EDT
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Can Gio Gonzalez duplicate his Cy Young-caliber numbers from last season?
Yesterday, we looked at a couple of stat prediction models for the Nationals' lineup and bench. Today, we turn to the Nats' pitching staff, using those same models' projections.
Bill James, the original sabermetrician, and Dan Szymborski, who developed the ZiPS formula used on Fangraphs.com, each have some interesting takes on how members of the Nationals pitching staff might perform in 2013. What was one of baseball's best staffs last season figures to be just as strong (if not stronger) this season.
Before we get to the numbers, a brief word: I know not everyone out there enjoys these projections and doesn't like to put more stock in mathematical formulas than what can be seen with your own eyes. I fully appreciate that. And honestly, I stand on that side of the fence, too, more often than not. But there is actual science behind these projections, and while they're never all going to come true, I do think there's value in at least taking a look at them.
OK, here's what the James and ZiPS models show for the Nationals' pitching staff in 2013…
STEPHEN STRASBURG GS IP BB SO ERA
2012 Actual 28 159 48 197 3.16
2013 James 32 208 57 255 2.68Read more »
NL EAST STANDINGS
FRI: Nats at Reds, 7:10 p.m.
SAT: Nats at Reds, 4:05 p.m.
SUN: Nats at Reds, 1:10 p.m.
MON: Nats at Marlins, 7:10 p.m.
TUE: Nats at Marlins, 7:10 p.m.
WED: Nats at Marlins, 12:40 p.m.
THU: Phillies at Nats, 7:05 p.m.
Full season schedule
ON THE RADIO
As ESPN-980 AM's Nats Insider, Mark makes daily appearances on the station's various shows. Here's the 2014 schedule (subject to change)...
MON: 12:45 p.m.
TUE: 2:30 p.m.
WED: 4:30 p.m.
THU: 2:30 p.m.
FRI: 1:30 p.m., 5:30 p.m.
SAT: 10:30 a.m.
*All times Eastern. You can also listen to the station on 94.3 FM, 92.7 FM and online at ESPN980.com. Click here for past audio clips.
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