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2014 Outlook: New York Mets

Jan 23, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT

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2013 record: 74-88, 3rd place in NL East
Manager: Terry Collins, 4th season
Estimated 2014 payroll: $85 million
Key additions: RHP Bartolo Colon, OF Curtis Granderson, OF Chris Young, LHP John Lannan
Key losses: LHP Johan Santana, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, OF Jordany Valdespin, IF Justin Turner, RHP David Aardsma

Projected lineup
RF Chris Young
2B Daniel Murphy
3B David Wright
LF Curtis Granderson
1B Ike Davis
CF Juan Lagares
C Travis d’Arnaud
SS Ruben Tejada

Projected rotation
RHP Bartolo Colon
LHP Jon Niese
RHP Dillon Gee
RHP Zack Wheeler
LHP John Lannan/RHP Jenrry Mejia

Top relievers
CL Bobby Parnell
RHP Gonzalez Germen
LHP Scott Rice

Biggest questions entering 2014
1. Can Bartolo Colon fill the Matt Harvey gap? Just when Mets fans had legitimate reason to get excited, young ace Harvey had Tommy John surgery that will knock him out for all of 2014. (The similarities to Stephen Strasburg’s debut and injury in 2010 are striking.) Knowing they need somebody to take Harvey’s place atop the rotation, the Mets signed the 40-year-old Colon to a 2-year, $20 million deal. Colon was great in Oakland last season, but does he have anything left in the tank? And even if so, will it be enough to offset the loss of Harvey?

2. Can Curtis Granderson anchor the lineup? The Mets’ biggest offseason splash was the signing of another veteran to a 4-year, $60 million deal. Granderson enjoyed back-to-back, 40-homer seasons with the Yankees in 2011-12, but he was just one piece in a loaded lineup in the Bronx. In Queens, he’ll be hitting cleanup, with David Wright in front of him and … Ike Davis protecting him. Not quite the same. The Mets desperately need big numbers from Granderson, because they’ve invested a lot in him, and they simply don’t have much else in the way of offensive production.

3. What happens to Ike Davis? Last year was a complete disaster for Davis, who struggled so much he was shipped to Class AAA Las Vegas. The Mets have actively tried to trade him all winter, but to date haven’t been able to complete a deal. Might they actually keep him, and if so, what can they honestly expect from him at the plate?

  1. tcostant - Jan 23, 2014 at 2:40 PM

    $85 million doesn’t buy what it use to…

  2. jd - Jan 23, 2014 at 2:46 PM

    Garza to the Brewers 4 years $52 mil.

    Jimenez and Santana the last significant pitchers left on the FA market.

  3. Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 2:48 PM

    Balfour signed with Rays. their series against O’s should be interesting and against Yankees even more so.

  4. Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 3:00 PM

    Since 2000, there have been seven pitchers with at least 25 WAR in their first six seasons.
    Do you all want to take a guess at who leads this list (as in most WAR in first six seasons)?

    • Section 222 - Jan 23, 2014 at 3:36 PM

      According to B-R, Cy Young had 57.2 WAR in his first six seasons. That is, if you count his first season where he only pitched 147 innings. He pitched 423 the next season! I doubt anyone could beat that. The Big Train had 44.9 in his first six. Clayton Kershaw had only 32.2. Piker. Even Bert Blyleven (37.4) had more than Kershaw. Pedro had 30.3. Clemens 35.7. That’s six pitchers already, all over 30 WAR. Maybe Fangraphs is different?

      • Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 4:45 PM

        only debuts from year 2000.

      • Section 222 - Jan 23, 2014 at 5:48 PM

        oops, somehow missed that. well that knocks out everyone I checked except Kershaw. someone better than him?

      • Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 5:50 PM

        I know, right? I was surprised to find the answer too.

    • deelizzle - Jan 23, 2014 at 5:15 PM

      Over 25 WAR (according to fangraphs), there are only 5: Oswalt, Webb, Weaver, Lincecum

      and the winner is Kershaw at 28.4.

      Johan Santana, Felix, Verlander, and Sabathia come awfully close.

      • Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 5:54 PM

        I was using BB-ref, answer is different than FG. Using FG, didn’t Oswalt (30.6 WAR from 2001 to 2006) perform better than Kershaw (28.4 until now, 2013 was his sixth season)?

  5. Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 4:47 PM

    wow maddux is not going in as a Brave, no logo on his cap.

  6. Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 7:40 PM

    Brandon Webb is the answer. Poor guy! His seventh season lasted 12 outs, 20 batters faced, and 77 pitches in 2009. That’s the last we saw of him in majors.

  7. ArVAFan - Jan 23, 2014 at 7:51 PM

    Complete change of topic. Nats are going to give out Jayson Werth garden gnomes in August. I wonder if it (he?) will scare the birds away from my tomatoes. Worth a try.

    • Eugene in Oregon - Jan 23, 2014 at 11:41 PM

      Seriously? Garden gnomes?

  8. Section 222 - Jan 23, 2014 at 9:33 PM

    If anyone can explain the difference between Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR for pitchers I’d be interested in hearing about it. Also, how accurate do you think the WAR calculation is for the old time greats like Babe Ruth, Cy Young, etc?

    • Faraz Shaikh - Jan 23, 2014 at 11:02 PM

      Source

      As far as I understood, main difference is use of defense-independent numbers. FG uses it and BBref does not.

Archives

NL EAST STANDINGS

W L GB
WASHINGTON 55 44 --
ATLANTA 55 46 1.0
NEW YORK 48 53 8.0
MIAMI 47 52 8.5
PHILADELPHIA 43 57 12.5
Through Wednesday's games

UPCOMING SCHEDULE
THU: OFF
FRI: Nats at Reds, 7:10 p.m.
SAT: Nats at Reds, 4:05 p.m.
SUN: Nats at Reds, 1:10 p.m.
MON: Nats at Marlins, 7:10 p.m.
TUE: Nats at Marlins, 7:10 p.m.
WED: Nats at Marlins, 12:40 p.m.
Full season schedule

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ON THE RADIO

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MON: 12:45 p.m.
TUE: 2:30 p.m.
WED: 4:30 p.m.
THU: 2:30 p.m.
FRI: 1:30 p.m., 5:30 p.m.
SAT: 10:30 a.m.

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